First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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  • First and Thirty
    First and Thirty

    FIRST AND THIRTY

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  • First and Thirty

    Wildcard Weekend Recap: Call it a Comeback

    Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.

    The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.

    2021 sides record: 33-25

    2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units

    Seattle @ San Francisco (+10.0)
    Line closed: SF -9.5, line moved toward the model

    We were looking pretty to start, with the Seahawks leading 17-16 at the half. Then the second half went as follows:

    -49ers touchdown

    -Seattle fumble

    -49ers touchdown

    -Seattle punt

    -49ers touchdown

    -Seattle INT

    -49ers field goal

    -Seattle garbage time touchdown

    -Knees

    With the 49ers running away with it easily. Seattle did have some success on deep ball to DK Metcalf, as we predicted, but it wasn't nearly enough. San Francisco's flury of offensive weapons were simply too much.

    I will give a shoutout to rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, who held Nick Bosa to zero pressures. The last time Bosa had zero pressures where he played a full game was literally never.

    Final score: San Fran 41, Seattle 23

    LA Chargers @ Jacksonville (+1.0)
    Line closed: LAC -2.0, line moved away from the model

    Most know the story here. Given that we were 0-1 to start, it was looking like it was going to be an ugly weekend for us. My honest thoughts while watching the Chargers jump out to a 27-0 lead was things felt a tad on the artificial side. The Chargers had some INT luck going there way -- one was a pass that was tipped twice and the other was a clear missed DPI on Asante Samuel Jr. There was 4 interceptions on Lawrence total, and it gave the Chargers excellent field position -- with touchdown drives coming from 18 yards, 16 yards, and 62 yards (the other INT led to a field goal). If those freak plays stop happening, maybe things could turn around. Naturally, we aren't expecting the Jags to win, but I thought we could at least see a competive game.

    The comeback started with 2 minutes to go in the half. A JK Scott punt traveled just 24 yards, which gave Jacksonville excellent field position. Trevor Lawrence then orchestrated the 2 minute drill beautifully, capped off with a touchdown pass to Evan Engram. The Chargers got the ball to start the half, but punted after 7 plays. Jacksonville then drove the ball 89 yards, ending with a touchdown pass to Marvin Jones. The Chargers were then able to manage a field goal, extending their lead to 30-14. On the next drive, Lawrence completed a 39 yard touchdown pass to Zay Jones, which cut the lead to 30-20 (they missed the 2 point conversion attempt). Things were looking bleak again as Justin Herbert was able to drive down the field, but we had further hope after Cameron Dicker missed a 40 yard field goal attempt. The Jags got the ball back and drove again, leading to a touchdown pass to Christian Kirk, who brought them within 4. On the play Chargers DE Joey Bosa felt a false start was missed by the refs, and he slammed his helmet down in frustration while still on the field (he was close to the sidelines, but clearly on the field). The refs awarded Bosa's antics with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, which gave the Jags the option of going for 2 from the 1. HC Doug Pederson then put his South-Park-in-a-wheelbarrow sized balls on the table and went for 2 -- which the Jags converted on a play where 6'6 Lawrence was simply able to reach over the line of scrimmage and across the goal line, which brought the Jags within 2. The Chargers next drive was a pitiful 3 and out, giving Jacksonville a chance to win it with 3:09 left. Jacksonville then did an excellent job moving the ball down field slowly, ending the game with a Riley Patterson 36 yard field goal as time expired.

    If only Bosa just kept his damn helmet on before traveling an extra two feet.

    Final score: Jacksonville 31, LA Chargers 30

    Result: WIN

    NY Giants (+3.0) @ Minnesota
    Line closed: MIN -2.5, line moved toward the model

    This was probably the most entertaining game of the weekend, with both quarterbacks brining their A game. The Giants were simply the better team, gaining 6.3 yards per play to Minnesota's 5.9. The big difference was the run game -- Daniel Jones managed 78 carries on 11 attempts (4.6 average) and Saquon Barkley had 53 carries on 9 attempts (5.9 average) while Dalvin Cook had just 59 carries on 15 attempts (3.9 average). The Giants also did an excellent job on Justin Jefferson, who managed 7 catches but only had 48 scoreless yards. TJ Hockenson did go wild for 10 catches for 129 yards, but it was clear the Giants weren't going to allow Jefferson to beat them. As for Jones the passer, he completed 24/35 of his passes for 301 yards (8.6 average), had 2 TDs, 0 picks, and a 76.7 PFF passing grade. On defense, Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams both won consistently against the Vikings interior, notching 7 pressures each.

    Final score: NY Giants 31, Minnesota 24

    Result: WIN

    Sides recap: 2-1 total. We had 2 line movements in our favor. The one that moved against us was a less then significant movement in the Jags/Chargers game, going from -1 to -2.
     

    Prop bets:

    Geno Smith o220.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): Geno finished with 253 yards passing. WIN +1 unit

    Christian McCaffrey u78.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): McCaffrey had 119 yards on the ground. LOSS -1.1 unit

    Justin Herbert u281.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Herbert had 273 yards passing. WIN +1 unit

    Keenan Allen u81.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Allen had 61 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit

    Josh Allen u50.5 rushing yards -110 (PointBet): Josh Allen ran for 20 yards. WIN +1 unit

    Devin Singletary u46.5 rushing yards -120 (BetMGM): I thought we had this one in the bag. The last two plays of the game (apart from a kneel down) were Singletary runs that went for 4 and 7 yards, which put him at 48 yards total. LOSS -1.2 units

    Stef Diggs o6.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Diggs had this in the first half. He finished with 7 catches. WIN +1.15 units

    Tyreek Hill o5.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): Hill also had 7 catches. WIN +1.2 units

    Dalvin Cook o68.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Dalvin had 60 yards on the ground. LOSS -1.15 units

    Richie James u49.5 receiving yards -108 (Caesars): James had 31 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit

    Tyler Huntley o149.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Huntley had 226 yards passing. WIN +1 unit

    Rachaad White o34.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): White had 41 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit

    Leonard Fournette u28.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Fournette had 1 catch for 6 yards. WIN +1 unit

    Props recap: 10-3, +6.9 units. Nice.

    Previous recaps:

    Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model

    Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover

    Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants

    Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants

    Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week

    Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week

    Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun

    Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points

    Week 9: Clean Sweep
    Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500

    Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us

    Week 12: Look At That, We Won
    Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover

    Week 14: An Average Week
    Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us

    Week 16: Gross
    Week 17 : Thinking of Damar Hamlin

    Week 18: We Bet One Game, We Won One Game

    Sides record:

    Week 1: 4-3

    Week 2: 2-2

    Week 3: 4-3

    Week 4: 3-5

    Week 5: 2-3-1

    Week 6: 1-4

    Week 7: 2-3

    Week 8: 3-3

    Week 9: 7-0

    Week 10: 2-4

    Week 11: 1-6

    Week 12: 4-3

    Week 13: 4-3

    Week 14: 4-4

    Week 15: 3-4-1
    Week 16: 1-4-1

    Week 17: 4-1

    Week 18: 1-0

    Wildcard Weekend: 2-1

    Season total: 54-53-3

    Props record:

    Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units

    Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units

    Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units

    Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units

    Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units

    Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units

    Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units

    Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units

    Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units

    Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units

    Week 11: 6-6, -0.78

    Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units

    Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units

    Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units

    Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
    Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units

    Week 17: 8-8, -0.74 units
    Week 18: 7-3, +3.6 units

    Wildcard Weekend: 10-3, +6.9 units

    Season total: 114-103, +3.51 units

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    Recommended Wager: NY Giants (+3.0) @ Minnesota
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    Recommended Wager: Jacksonville (+8.5) @ Kansas City
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