Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Jacksonville (+8.5) @ Kansas City
Line closed: KC -9.5, line moved away from the model
The game didn't go great for the Jags -- their receivers failed to get open and Lawrence wasn't quite at his best, which resulted in a 61.5% completion percentage and 5.6 YPA for Lawrence. The defense came into this one ranked dead last in DVOA against tight ends, and they predictably had issues with Travis Kelce, who finished with 14 catches for 98 yards and 2 scores. There was an injury to Pat Mahomes, but he missed just one drive. On said drive backup QB Chad Henne drove the ball 98 yards down the field for a touchdown.
But the Jags hung tough, and 8.5 is a lot of points. They found themselves down 27-17 with 1:04 to go. They quickly marched to the 30 yard line and elected to take a field goal to make it a one score game. Riley Patterson nailed the 48 yard attempt, and the game ended after the Jags were unable to recover the onside kick.
Final score: Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 20
Result: WIN
Cincinnati (+4.5) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -5.5, line moved away from the model
The story going into this one was how the Bengals offensive line -- which was down 3 starters -- would hold up against the Bills pass rush. The Bills took a big hit when they lost Von Miller to a torn ACL, but they still have plenty of talented players capable of beating the backups Cincy was trotting out. Joe Burrow answered with his normal quick passing attack, averaging just 2.46 seconds to throw. The line held up reasonably well, Burrow was still under pressure on 30.8% of dropbacks, but that is a very good result considering the on paper matchup. The Bengals receivers were also able to win their matchups quickly, which helped Burrow gain 6.7 yards per attempt through the air.
As for the defense, Buffalo was able to keep Josh Allen under pressure on 44.7% of dropbacks and held Stef Diggs to 35 scoreless yards and 4 catches. We touched upon in the preview that Cincy has done well against #1 wide receivers all year, and this game was no exception. They were also able to hold the Bills to 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground.
In the end, Cincy was simply the better team.
Final score: Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 10
Result: WIN
Sides result: 2-0. Both lines moved away from the model, but neither crossed key numbers.
Prop bets:
Pat Mahomes u310.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Mahomes finished with 195 yards passing. Although he did suffer a high ankle sprain and had to miss some time, backup Chad Henne attempted just 7 passes, completing 5 of them for 23 yards. Both Chiefs QBs were collectively at 218, which is still way under. WIN +1 unit
Jerick McKinnon u25.5 rushing yards -108 (Caesars): As close as it gets, McKinnon finished with 25 yards. The Chiefs were handing the ball off to McKinnon over Pacheco to run out the clock, he luckily gained 5 yards on the last play. WIN +1 unit
Kadarius Toney u32.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars): Toney had 36 yards receiving. LOSS -1.15 units
Trevor Lawrence u250.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Lawrence finished with 217 yards passing. WIN +1 unit
Travis Etienne u71.5 rushing yards -101 (Caesars): Etienne had 62 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
Travis Etienne u2.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): But he caught 3 balls. LOSS -1 unit
Daniel Jones u45.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Jones had 24 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
Josh Allen u50.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Allen had 26 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
Stef Diggs o6.5 receptions +110 (BetMGM): Diggs caught 4 balls for 35 scoreless yards. LOSS -1 unit
Ja'Marr Chase o7.5 receptions +106 (FanDuel): Chase had 5 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. LOSS -1 unit
Hayden Hurst u33.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Hurts had 59 yards receiving. LOSS -1.15 units
George Kittle u3.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings): Kittle caught 5 balls, including this ridiculous catch. LOSS -1 unit
Results: 6-6, -0.3 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 14: An Average Week
Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us
Week 16: Gross
Week 17 : Thinking of Damar Hamlin
Week 18: We Bet One Game, We Won One Game
Wildcard Weekend: Call it a Comeback
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Week 15: 3-4-1
Week 16: 1-4-1
Week 17: 4-1
Week 18: 1-0
Wildcard Weekend: 2-1
Divisional Weekend: 2-0
Season total: 56-53-3
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units
Week 17: 8-8, -0.74 units
Week 18: 7-3, +3.6 units
Wildcard Weekend: 10-3, +6.9 units
Divisional Weekend: 6-6, -0.3 units
Season total: 120-109, +3.21 units
