First and Thirty
First and Thirty

FIRST AND THIRTY

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    First and Thirty

    FIRST AND THIRTY

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  • First and Thirty

    Conference Championship Recap: Props Win

    · Brady,Champ Round 2022,Recap

    Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.

    The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.

    2021 sides record: 33-25

    2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units

    This week we featured zero spread bets. The model called for spreads of KC -1.5 and PHI -1.15, which ended up being too close to the actual spreads for us to see value. The Chiefs/Bengals game had wild line movement due to uncertainty of how effective Pat Mahomes (high ankle sprain) would be. On Thursday, FanDuel listed the Chiefs as 1 point favorites, DraftKings had them as 1 point dogs, and Caesars had them at a pick em. The entire thing screamed uncertainty, and we decided it was best to stay away. But there was still betting to be done -- let's see how the props did:

    San Francisco @ Philadelphia
    Deebo Samuel u21.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): This bet seemed destined to fail. RB Eli Mitchell (groin) was ruled inactive despite getting in a limited session on Friday, which meant there were more carries to go around. Further, the 49ers essentially had zero passing attack with Brock Purdy (elbow) and Josh Johnson (concussion) both receiving in-game injuries. Samuel ended up with 6 rushing attempts, which is the most he's had since week 1 of the regular season, and is certainly more then I was comfortable with given the wager.

    That all said, Samuel ended with *checks notes* -9 yards rushing. Yes, negative 9. It's hard to blame Samuel given the offensive situation, but he had two separate runs get blown up in the back field. Both were 4th down runs, which resulted in losses of 4 and 7 yards, respectively. WIN +1 unit

    DeVonta Smith u66.5 receiving yards -109 (Caeasars): Smith had a long 29 yard completion that wasn't actually a completion, but the Eagles wisely got the play off quickly before the 49eres were able to challenge. He caught just 1 other pass the rest of the game, as Philly was able to roll without needing a major passing attach. Smith finished with 36 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit

    AJ Brown u4.5 receptions +135 (DraftKings): Jalen Hurts connected with AJ Brown on 2 passes on the very first drive. On the Eagles third drive, they ran back to back screen passes to Brown, both of which he caught. There was 1:41 left in the 1st and he already had 4 catches.

    He didn't catch another pass the rest of the game. As mentioned above, it wasn't necessary to involve the passing attack with the Eagles winning comfortably. This was certainly a fortunate win. WIN +1.35 units

    Cincinnati @ Kansas City

    Joe Burrow u17.5 rushing yards +100 (DraftKings): Burrown ran for 30 yards on what ended up being our only loss of the week. LOSS -1 unit

    Joe Mixon u60.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Mixon had a tough day, gaining just 19 yards on 8 attempts (2.4 average). WIN +1 unit

    Kadarius Toney u35.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Toney had a would be touchdown called back -- it looked like a nice catch, but replay should he clearly did not posses the ball when going to the ground. Outside of that, he had just 1 catch for 9 yards before needing to leave the game with an ankle injury in the 1st quarter. Another fortunate break for us. It doesn't look good for Toney being able to return for the Super Bowl, but hopefully he can get healthy fast. WIN +1 unit

    Props recap: 5-1, +4.35 units. 

    Previous recaps:

    Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model

    Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover

    Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants

    Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants

    Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week

    Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week

    Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun

    Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points

    Week 9: Clean Sweep
    Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500

    Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us

    Week 12: Look At That, We Won
    Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover

    Week 14: An Average Week
    Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us

    Week 16: Gross
    Week 17: Thinking of Damar Hamlin

    Week 18: We Bet One Game, We Won One Game
    Wildcard Weekend: Call it a Comeback
    Divisional Round: The Dogs Prevail

    Sides record:

    Week 1: 4-3

    Week 2: 2-2

    Week 3: 4-3

    Week 4: 3-5

    Week 5: 2-3-1

    Week 6: 1-4

    Week 7: 2-3

    Week 8: 3-3

    Week 9: 7-0

    Week 10: 2-4

    Week 11: 1-6

    Week 12: 4-3

    Week 13: 4-3

    Week 14: 4-4

    Week 15: 3-4-1
    Week 16: 1-4-1

    Week 17: 4-1

    Week 18: 1-0

    Wildcard Weekend: 2-1

    Divisional Weekend: 2-0

    Conference Championship: 0-0

    Season total: 56-53-3

    Props record:

    Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units

    Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units

    Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units

    Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units

    Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units

    Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units

    Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units

    Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units

    Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units

    Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units

    Week 11: 6-6, -0.78

    Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units

    Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units

    Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units

    Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
    Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units

    Week 17: 8-8, -0.74 units
    Week 18: 7-3, +3.6 units

    Wildcard Weekend: 10-3, +6.9 units
    Divisional Weekend: 6-6, -0.3 units

    Conference Championship: 5-1, +4.35 units

    Season total: 125-110, +7.56 units

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