All Categories - First and Thirty

My prop bet card for week 3 is below. This is a data driven process with manual review. If you're...

WEEK 3 RECOMMENDATIONSDomModel is officially live for Week 3. As discussed here, the model...

Some thoughts: -Overall a strong week, finishing 23-14. -We hit some injury luck with DJ Moore ...

Week 2 Recap Week Record: 1-2-0 Season Record: 3-5-0 ❌ BAL -8.5 — LOSS Saints 24, Ravens 17 My...

My prop bet card for week 2 is below. If you're curious about the process, read this article.

DomModel is officially live for Week 2. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its...

Week 1 Recap Week Record: 2-3-0 Season Record: 2-3-0 ❌ LIONS -6.5 — LOSS Saints 30, Lions 31 I...

My prop bet card for week 1 is below. If you're curious about the process, read this article.

How the First & Thirty Player Prop Model Works We’ve spent a good chunk of the offseason building...

DomModel is officially live for Week 1. As discussed here, the model identifies games where its...

DomModel is back. After a brief one-year hiatus, DomModel returns for the 2026 NFL season with...

It always annoyed me that I couldn't find a resource that showed an offseason team-by-team break...

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how...

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how...

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how...

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how...