First and Thirty
NFL betting, done brilliantly.
Recommended Wagers
Week 5 (posted 5:15PM 10/1)
We don't sell secrets.
Most handicappers don't tell you how they make their picks.
We've built a random forest model that regresses our in-house power rankings alongside weekly DVOA statistics against spreads for over 1,000 NFL games. The model's full output is available to download each week.
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Analysis
October 5, 2024 · Brady,Week 5 2024,Prop BetsOctober 5, 2024 · Brady,Week 5 2024,Power RankingsOctober 5, 2024September 27, 2024 · Brady,Week 4 2024,Power RankingsMore PostsResults
Through the end of the 2023 NFL season:
W:175 L:155 T:7
ROI: 1.2%
ROI p5: -9.0%
ROI p95: 11.5%
Contributors
These are the people who do the things
Dom
Co-founder
Numbers nerd, spreadsheet humper, named the model after himself, modest
Brady
Co-founder
NFL news geek, power ranker, blog writer, caption writer